Carve Designs grows winback flow revenue 12.7X with one small change: entry timing from Orita

Carve Designs had been running a well-designed winback flow with three branches, an offer tiered by how long a customer had been away, and a direct mail postcard at the end. Orita changed one thing about it: the timing when each lapsed customer entered the flow. With Orita, the flow’s trigger finally accounted for seasonality, a real key for a swimsuit brand. A month later the only Orita-triggered winback flow’s revenue had increased by over 12x, and was beating revenue for all other flows except their Welcome series.

• 12.7X flow revenue

• $0.82 revenue / recipient

• 2.0% click rate

Winback flow performance from Klaviyo, July 8 to September 23, 2026.

Sophisticated flow content, with an entry trigger they knew was leaving money on the table

Carve Designs treats retention like a craft. Their winback flow is more considered than most: three branches depending on how long a customer has been away, a different offer on each branch, and an ending most brands never attempt, a physical postcard sent with PostPilot.

For a swimsuit brand, getting timing right is critical. A customer who buys a swimsuit every spring looks lapsed by winter but isn't necessarily gone. This was the thing that kept the performance marketing team up at night.

While they knew that seasonality played a big role in when a customer was ripe for winback, they couldn’t find a more effective trigger than days since last purchase.

Orita changed the trigger timing, and continues to re-optimize as seasons change.

Orita Flows takes over one decision: when a profile enters the flow.

Once live, the model began splitting Carve's lapsed customers into windows by how long they'd been away, routing a small share into each one, and holding back a matched group in every window that received nothing. Windows that produced orders got more volume the next week. Windows that didn't got less.

Orita’s model goes beyond simply looking at time since last engagement (last time on site, last purchase, last click), to consider combinations of factors, as well as likelihood of engagement today.

The flow didn't change; the entry timing did. Orita continues to test different windows throughout the year, so as the business shifts, or the season does, the winback flow is always timed optimally.

Flow revenue up 12.7X, with Winback performance now second only to Welcome flow

In the first 10 weeks, the Orita-timed winback earned 12.7X the revenue of the flow it replaced, at $0.82 per recipient and a 2.0% click rate. It now out-earns every flow in Carve's account except the welcome series. For a winback, which usually sits well down that list, that's a different category of result.

And it's provable rather than inferred. Every timing window carries a matched control group that receives nothing, so the lift reported is the gap between customers who entered the flow and comparable customers who didn't. It isn't revenue moved over from somewhere else in the program.

“We'd already done the work on the content. Before Orita, we had no way to be scientific about when someone entered the flow. We knew this precision was the missing piece. With Orita’s trigger, our winback flow is now dramatically outperforming what we could do before.”

Hannah Fleming, Performance Marketing Director, Carve Designs

The same model was already choosing Carve's campaign audiences

Before Orita timed the winback flow, Carve was already using Orita to decide who gets Carve's campaigns. Every day Orita ranks each profile by how likely it is to engage and buy, and Carve built its campaign audiences from those rankings. Their results for campaigns were also impressive.

• Campaign click rate rose 28 percent.

• Orita's Highly Engaged audience was Carve's strongest segment. It had 3x the click rate and 3x the order rate of Carve's standard segments, and more than double the order value.

• Orita found $264,482 in Rescued Revenue™ from Carve’s Manually Suppressed list. Orita brought back profiles Carve had manually suppressed. Those customers have generated $264,482 in Rescued Revenue™, and counting.

Want to know which timing windows are actually working on your list? Chat with us: www.orita.ai/get-a-demo